IvyArcIvyArc
10

Havachoc

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 54

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#2

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who has been below par on turf the last twice. However, return to this venue is likely to see him in a better light and he figures off a handy mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 1m5f219y Std 133 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 59 par31/036OR 596 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m5f219y Std 135 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 par8/056OR 586 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 58 · 1m4f98y Std 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 par4 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m4f63y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 59 par13/064OR 596 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 1m4f23y Goo 136 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m5f219y Std 141 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 59 par7/076OR 595 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m6f Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m7f196y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 56 par11/095OR 56projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester59th8th+1
2026-08-07Haydock57th6th+1
2026-07-07Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-07-03Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-06-13Chester46th4th+2
2026-06-02Newcastle62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/032/067/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
15/04/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
08/05/20262nd11/1094%83%-0.11
02/06/20262nd7/282%90%+0.08
13/06/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
03/07/20262nd17/255%75%+0.20
07/07/20264th7/491%40%-0.51
07/08/20267th33/10%0%0.00
11/09/20269th66/10%27%+0.27