IvyArcIvyArc
11

Hey Havana

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 57

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#9

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Largely run with credit without winning this season, making the frame on several occasions. Found run of good form coming to a halt at Redcar last time, though, and is now tried in blinkers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 59 par7/116OR 596 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par15/066OR 606 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 59 par6/076OR 596 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 6f195y Goo 131 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 58 par19/086OR 586 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m2f1y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 58 par9/095OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar58th7th+1
2026-08-27Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-08-19Carlisle64th4th0
2026-08-03Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-07-06Ayr65th5th0
2026-06-19Redcar62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1119/0619/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20253rd5/174%71%-0.02
18/05/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
15/06/20265th13/266%67%+0.01
19/06/20262nd5/493%89%-0.05
06/07/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
03/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
19/08/20264th11/893%63%-0.30
27/08/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
09/09/20268th5/174%13%-0.61