Newport
6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 65
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 24/05/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 9% | -0.67 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |