Ouro Preto
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 61
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 41% | -0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |