2
Rubellite
6yo Mare · 10-1 · OR 64
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |