Spirit Of Nature
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 46
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Hamilton | 2 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |