7
Sutton Hoo
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.2
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA71 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA73 | 12th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-08-13 | Gowran Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 22/09/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/05/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 12/07/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |