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9

Balmoral Boy

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 58

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Supremacy gelding who has displayed much more encouraging signs on 2 of last 3 starts, equipped with cheekpieces when keeping on third in big-field handicap at Redcar (1m) 16 days ago. Return to this longer trip promises to suit on that evidence and he's worth a second look.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0345 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/0446 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f213y GS 133 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 131 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 61 par15/066OR 616 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m1f170y Goo 133 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 58 par27/076OR 586 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m208y Gd 128 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 57 · 7f219y Goo 128 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 57 par9/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar63rd3rd0
2026-08-25Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-07-27Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-07-18Ripon64th4th0
2026-06-15Wetherby611th11th0
2026-05-16Doncaster68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0316/0527/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20263rd80/10%71%+0.71
13/04/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
24/04/20265th125/10%0%0.00
16/05/20268th50/10%46%+0.46
15/06/202611th40/10%17%+0.17
18/07/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
27/07/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
25/08/20267th17/255%14%-0.41
09/09/20263rd25/10%89%+0.89