10
Carwyn
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57
Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 3 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Leopardstown | BHA78 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 13/08/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 18/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/05/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/07/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |