8
Eagles Dream
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 55
Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.2
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 21/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 28/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 31/07/2025 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.36 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |