13
Falaise Blanc
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 46
Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |