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12

Game Management

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 48

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Juvenile hurdle winner for this yard in 2024. Made the frame but ran to only a modest level back from 10 months off when fourth in classified event at Ayr (1m, good) last month and fared no better when 10 lengths fourth of 7 in a C&D handicap since. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 03/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 129 · beat its mark03/10/2024 · OR 59 par3/106OR 595 @ Southwell 31/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m13y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2024 · OR 58 par4 @ Catterick 22/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS22/1144 @ Catterick 17/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Carlisle 30/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 57 · 1m3f39y Goo 127 · beat its mark30/05/2025 · OR 57 par30/056OR 575 @ Carlisle 16/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m1f Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Carlisle 05/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 7f173y Sft 149 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 54 par5/076OR 546 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m2f43y Std 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 49 par2/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle64th4th0
2026-08-10Ayr64th4th0
2025-09-30Sedgefield5+1
2025-07-21Cartmel5+1
2025-07-05Carlisle67th7th0
2025-06-16Carlisle58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1017/125/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20245th11/271%64%-0.07
31/10/20245th4/179%33%-0.46
22/11/20241st16/116%100%+0.84
17/12/20243rd11/142%80%+0.38
30/05/20259th11/142%20%-0.22
16/06/20258th40/10%36%+0.36
05/07/20257th11/142%25%-0.17
10/08/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
02/09/20264th6/168%50%-0.18