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6

Gemini Man

8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has won 3 times on the Flat this year, including C&D classified event in June. Hard to knock his recent consistency, runner up over further here prior to finishing a creditable fourth back over this C&D 6 days ago. Can give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 48 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 48 par23/026OR 486 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 49 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/066OR 496 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 52 · 1m4f104y Gd 122 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m2f42y Sta 123 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 53 par25/076OR 536 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 53 · 1m5f Gd 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 53 · 1m208y Gd 130 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 53 par7/086OR 536 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 55 par19/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle64th4th0
2026-09-03Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-07-25Newcastle69th9th0
2026-06-30Musselburgh60

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0222/067/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
10/03/20262nd10/1195%83%-0.12
02/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
22/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/07/20269th11/271%33%-0.38
31/07/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
07/08/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
03/09/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
19/09/20264th9/276%70%-0.06