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5

Rory's Gold

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 56

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who posted a solid second over 1m at Ayr in June and back to that sort of form when third over this trip at Pontefract 8 days ago, no extra final 1f. Each-way possibilities back on all-weather from unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newbury 16/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 65 par16/055OR 656 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 63 · 1m Sta 133 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 63 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f195y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 62 par29/056OR 626 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 60 · 7f213y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m Sft 141 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/066OR 605 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 7f14y Sta 137 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 60 par31/076OR 606 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f39y Goo 136 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m2f5y Gd 134 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 56 par17/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract63rd3rd0
2026-08-27Carlisle67th7th0
2026-07-31Newcastle68th8th0
2026-07-01Thirsk58th7th+1
2026-06-19Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-14Doncaster68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0514/0631/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20259th14/126%38%+0.12
09/07/20254th25/10%77%+0.77
29/05/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
14/06/20268th50/10%59%+0.59
19/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
01/07/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
31/07/20268th9/153%13%-0.40
27/08/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
17/09/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25