11
Rugby Union
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57
Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | ? | 16th | 14th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/01/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |