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4

Token Love

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 57

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who has made a sound start for his new yard, seemingly paying for earlier exertions when third in a C&D handicap in July. Mark looks workable on balance of his form and he's worth a second look back from a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 12/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0945 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f1y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 25/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m142y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 65 par25/105OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 01/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 60 par5 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/12/2025 · OR 62 par30/125OR 626 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m75y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m6y Goo 130 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 60 par29/046OR 606 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 1m2f50y Goo 139 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 58 · 1m2f42y Sta 128 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 58 par25/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-17Nottingham62nd2nd0
2026-04-29Pontefract64th4th0
2026-04-08Nottingham67th7th0
2025-12-30Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2025-12-01Wolverhampton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/091/1229/0425/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20257th28/10%0%0.00
04/10/202510th150/10%0%0.00
25/10/202510th66/10%18%+0.18
01/12/20252nd25/10%91%+0.91
30/12/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
08/04/20267th20/10%57%+0.57
29/04/20264th9/153%63%+0.10
17/07/20262nd5/174%75%+0.01
25/07/20263rd7/282%83%+0.02