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7

Yaaser

8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55

Newcastle · Esh Stantec Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished a close third in better race at Hamilton last month but typically put himself on the back foot with slow starts of late, and ran poorly when last of 8 in handicap at Ayr (1m, soft) last week. Back up in trip now and whilst he's capable, he clearly comes with risks attached.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 65 par6/064OR 656 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f15y Gd 141 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 61 · 6f195y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 61 par9/075OR 616 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 7f50y GF 139 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m68y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 58 par1/085OR 585 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f50y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 58 par10/086OR 586 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m68y Sft 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 55 par18/095OR 55projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr58th7th+1
2026-09-02Hamilton68th8th0
2026-08-10Ayr64th4th0
2026-08-08Ayr58th7th+1
2026-08-01Hamilton53rd2nd+1
2026-07-20Ayr63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0620/0710/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
22/06/20269th5/174%0%-0.74
09/07/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
20/07/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
01/08/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
08/08/20268th5/174%36%-0.37
10/08/20264th11/271%73%+0.02
02/09/20268th17/255%22%-0.33
18/09/20268th16/116%0%-0.16