1
Brash
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 64
Newcastle · MMB Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |