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2

Elite Approach

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Newcastle · MMB Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved from debut after 4-month absence when fourth of 9 in novice at Southwell (1m, 25/1) 40 days ago. Returns to shorter trip now and may have more to offer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13329/0444 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m13y Std 13016/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Southwell44th4th0
2026-04-29Southwell44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0416/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
16/08/20264th25/10%63%+0.63