13
Arenite
2yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 69
Newcastle · United Infrastructure EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -34.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.45 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |