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2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 68

Newcastle · United Infrastructure EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C2.8

Today: 4

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Yarmouth	4	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-18	Windsor	2	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-05-04	Bath	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-04-25	Leicester	2	2nd	0th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength30%

Delivery trend -28.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/04/2026	2nd	33/1	0%	91%	+0.91
04/05/2026	3rd	85/40	89%	78%	-0.11
18/05/2026	4th	16/1	16%	73%	+0.57
30/08/2026	7th	15/2	61%	33%	-0.27