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Invincible Crown

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 54

Newcastle · Selwood Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hold-up performer who exploited a career-low mark over C&D last Saturday. Shouldered with a 5 lb penalty but he won off 1 lb higher last October. Leading claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 58 par5/066OR 586 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 56 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 56 par25/066OR 566 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 56 · 5f1y Gd 138 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 137 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/076OR 606 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 59 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 58 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 58 par17/085OR 586 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 56 · 4f215y Std 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 54 par19/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-09-03Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-08-17Catterick511th10th+1
2026-08-03Nottingham64th4th0
2026-07-15Catterick64th4th0
2026-06-30Musselburgh61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0630/0617/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
16/06/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
25/06/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
30/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
15/07/20264th18/15%63%+0.57
03/08/20264th9/488%25%-0.63
17/08/202611th22/10%0%0.00
03/09/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
19/09/20261st15/261%100%+0.39