2
Khabib
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 54
Newcastle · Selwood Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2024-08-25 | Beverley | 4 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 03/08/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 16/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2024 | 14th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.63 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |