8
Moretons
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 46
Newcastle · Selwood Handicap · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Catterick | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 19/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |