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4

Phoenix Beach

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 51

Newcastle · Selwood Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now 19 runs since last win in 2025 and he's rarely threatened this year. Possible a recent Southwell outing was needed after 3 months off but still hard to be confident about.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 63 par6/025OR 635 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 5f21y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f21y Std 130 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 60 par2/036OR 605 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 5f21y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 5f21y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 58 par4/045OR 585 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 5f21y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 55 · 5f160y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 55 par22/056OR 556 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 53 · 5f10y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 51 · 4f214y Std 132 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 51 par17/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell67th7th0
2026-06-13Bath611th11th0
2026-05-22Bath67th7th0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-04-04Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-03-20Wolverhampton53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0220/0322/0517/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
27/02/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
02/03/20269th9/276%0%-0.76
20/03/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59
04/04/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
21/04/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
22/05/20267th10/147%45%-0.02
13/06/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
17/09/20267th4/179%45%-0.33