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7

Shatin Venture

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45

Newcastle · Selwood Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole win came over C&D in March 2025. Rather in-and-out on the all-weather earlier in the year and last of 9 back from a break here 23 days ago. Needs to have come on a lot.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 47 · 5f Std 127 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 47 par21/106OR 476 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 46 · 5f Std 122 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 5f Std 126 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 46 par19/126OR 466 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 46 · 5f Std 122 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 127 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 45 par16/016OR 456 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 45 · 5f Std 116 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 45 · 5f Std 121 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 45 par24/026OR 456 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 46 · 5f Std 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 46 par2/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle69th9th0
2026-03-06Newcastle69th9th0
2026-02-24Newcastle65th5th0
2026-02-15Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-01-16Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-01-01Newcastle610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/101/0124/022/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20253rd9/153%83%+0.31
09/12/20253rd13/266%80%+0.14
19/12/20253rd9/488%67%-0.21
01/01/202610th7/163%18%-0.45
16/01/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
15/02/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
24/02/20265th9/153%56%+0.03
06/03/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
02/09/20269th10/147%0%-0.47