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6

Adelaide Bay

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 54

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Expensive to follow and was a beaten favourite on 4 out of 6 starts for Jane Chapple-Hyam, including when fourth over C&D in July and third of 10 at Southwell 29 days ago. Now starts out for another new yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 26/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 60 · 7f36y Std 130 · below its mark26/01/2026 · OR 60 par26/016OR 606 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f Std 134 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 130 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 55 par13/036OR 556 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 54 · 7f1y Std 124 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 54 par4/066OR 546 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 53 · 7f3y GF 133 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 54 · 7f36y Std 130 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par14/076OR 546 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m5y Sta 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 54 par27/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-07-25Newcastle64th4th0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-07-02Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield65th5th0
2026-05-21Southwell62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0121/0514/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/01/202610th40/10%10%+0.10
21/02/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
13/03/20268th50/10%0%0.00
21/05/20262nd5/493%88%-0.06
04/06/20265th3/184%64%-0.21
02/07/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
14/07/20266th5/493%44%-0.49
25/07/20264th6/492%73%-0.19
27/08/20263rd7/491%78%-0.13