10
Aurora's Doublesix
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45
Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y
#11
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 300/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |