IvyArcIvyArc
4

Bajan Bandit

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beat Barleybrown when winning apprentice handicap over C&D 6 days ago, bouncing back from rare poor effort having been consistent in better races prior to that. Escapes a penalty turned out quickly and looks sure to go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 66 par11/035OR 665 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m5y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m75y Goo 136 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 62 par25/066OR 624 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f96y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 60 par7/075OR 605 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 6f212y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 60 par20/086OR 606 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m13y Std 130 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 139 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 59 par19/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-31Southwell612th12th0
2026-08-20Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Haydock53rd2nd+1
2026-07-07Wolverhampton52nd1st+1
2026-07-04Beverley45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/034/0720/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
27/03/20266th13/266%38%-0.28
25/06/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
04/07/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
07/07/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
07/08/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
20/08/20262nd4/179%90%+0.11
31/08/202612th13/266%15%-0.50
19/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26