IvyArcIvyArc
7

Barleybrown

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 54

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time C&D winner running well of late, including when second of 10 to Bajan Bandit in a handicap here 6 days ago. He's well enough treated if getting the race run to suit (needs a strong pace).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 59 par27/035OR 596 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f213y Goo 126 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 55 par25/046OR 556 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 53 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 53 par2/066OR 536 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m5y Sta 137 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m13y Std 134 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 54 par16/086OR 546 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 53 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 54 par19/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-09-02Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-16Southwell65th5th0
2026-06-25Newcastle68th8th0
2026-06-02Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-05-17Ripon66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0317/0516/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
13/04/20267th7/282%40%-0.42
25/04/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
17/05/20266th13/266%58%-0.07
02/06/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
25/06/20268th11/486%42%-0.44
16/08/20265th8/158%67%+0.09
02/09/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
19/09/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07