11
One More Bottle
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45
Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 17/10/2025 | 14th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 16/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 10/01/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |