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Toralou

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 59

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Only one win to name and largely below best this year but ran better when fourth of 10 over 7f at Haydock 21 days ago. Handicapper has dropped her a further 6 lb here which gives her a chance back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 15/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/09/2025 · OR 72 par15/095OR 725 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m142y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m142y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 67 par22/125OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m142y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Gd 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 70 par15/055OR 705 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 1m GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f213y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 68 par3/075OR 685 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m68y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f212y Hvy 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 65 par4/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock54th3rd+1
2026-08-11Hamilton57th6th+1
2026-07-03Doncaster56th5th+1
2026-06-04Ffos Las52nd1st+1
2026-05-15Newbury57th6th+1
2026-02-02Wolverhampton57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/092/023/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20258th11/271%13%-0.59
24/11/20253rd18/15%75%+0.70
22/12/20257th15/261%14%-0.46
02/02/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
15/05/20267th22/10%50%+0.50
04/06/20262nd13/266%90%+0.24
03/07/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
11/08/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
04/09/20264th14/126%67%+0.40