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8

Trais Fluors

12yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 52

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won classified stakes over 7f here in July. More required returned to handicap company and back up to 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 55 par21/036OR 555 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m5y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 54 par13/046OR 546 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m6y Std 134 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f50y Goo 124 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 52 par5/056OR 526 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m5y Std 131 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 50 · 1m5y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 50 par25/066OR 506 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 7f14y Sta 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 47 par25/076OR 47projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Newcastle61st1st0
2026-07-05Ayr66th6th0
2026-06-25Newcastle67th7th0
2026-06-02Newcastle611th11th0
2026-05-05Ayr65th5th0
2026-04-20Newcastle68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0320/0425/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20265th17/255%60%+0.05
27/03/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
13/04/20268th16/116%30%+0.14
20/04/20268th13/266%46%-0.20
05/05/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
02/06/202611th13/266%17%-0.49
25/06/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
05/07/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
25/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58