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Travis

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good form over 7f earlier this summer, winning at Redcar in June before placing 3 times in July, but last 2 runs have been poor. Drops back into 0-60 now with cheekpieces back on so could bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f218y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 64 par10/045OR 645 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 63 · 7f219y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 61 par3/065OR 616 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Gd 129 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 65 · 7f96y Goo 135 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 65 par3/076OR 656 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f6y GF 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 63 · 7f14y Sta 140 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 63 par31/076OR 635 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f218y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar611th11th0
2026-08-14Thirsk510th9th+1
2026-07-31Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-18Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-06-19Redcar61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0419/0631/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20265th11/271%67%-0.04
18/05/202612th10/147%0%-0.47
03/06/202612th25/10%0%0.00
19/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
03/07/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
18/07/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
31/07/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
14/08/202610th16/116%36%+0.20
09/09/202611th6/168%29%-0.40