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9

Volenti

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 48

Newcastle · MWH Treatment Handicap · 1m 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time C&D winner for Ben Haslam but hasn't won in 23 starts. Fifth of 10 here on second start for current yard 6 days ago when racing freely and doing too much too soon. Well treated if able to find some form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m5y Std 131 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 56 par31/016OR 566 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 1m6y Goo 124 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 52 par17/056OR 526 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 50 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 49 · 7f219y Gd 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 49 par20/066OR 495 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m1f Goo 129 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 49 par19/076OR 496 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 48 par19/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle65th5th0
2026-08-31Ripon63rd3rd0
2026-07-19Redcar63rd3rd0
2026-07-06Ripon54th3rd+1
2026-06-20Redcar63rd3rd0
2026-06-02Newcastle64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/012/0619/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/01/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
29/04/20267th15/261%25%-0.36
17/05/20264th11/142%75%+0.33
02/06/20264th9/276%75%-0.01
20/06/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
06/07/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
19/07/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
31/08/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
19/09/20265th7/282%56%-0.26