Anthropologist
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70
Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 42% | -0.35 |