9
Criminal Shore
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69
Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Haydock | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 12/06/2026 | 17th | 20/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 07/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 43% | -0.51 |