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Flowstate

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75

Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner over C&D earlier this year and likely needed return from 6-month break when fifth of 12 going without usual visor over 6f at Southwell 22 days ago. Headgear back on and back up in trip so one to take very seriously returned to this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 64 par16/126OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 137 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 67 par12/015OR 675 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 67 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 66 par6/025OR 665 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 137 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 72 par28/025OR 725 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 76 · 6f17y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 76 par3/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell45th4th+1
2026-03-06Newcastle51st1st0
2026-02-28Southwell54th4th0
2026-02-15Newcastle51st1st0
2026-02-06Newcastle51st1st0
2026-01-22Newcastle55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1222/0128/023/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
27/12/20253rd15/890%78%-0.12
12/01/20265th7/282%56%-0.26
22/01/20265th14/126%64%+0.37
06/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/02/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
28/02/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
06/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
03/09/20265th40/10%64%+0.64