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3

Frankies Dream

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75

Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual course winner but hasn't scored anywhere this year and hasn't helped himself with poor starts the last twice. Mark has dropped to a handy one though, and could make a much bigger impact dropping into 0-75 company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 83 par18/044OR 833 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 81 · 7f96y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 81 par30/054OR 814 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 81 · 1m177y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 83 · 7f192y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 83 par27/063OR 834 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m2f56y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m GF 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 82 par25/072OR 824 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 80 · 7f219y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 77 par5/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk44th3rd+1
2026-08-08Redcar48th7th+1
2026-07-25Ascot28th4th+3
2026-07-10York47th6th+1
2026-06-27York33rd1st+2
2026-06-13York42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0413/0625/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/202611th33/10%17%+0.17
16/05/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
30/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
13/06/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
27/06/20263rd5/287%85%-0.02
10/07/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
25/07/20268th18/15%30%+0.25
08/08/20268th9/276%46%-0.30
05/09/20264th7/282%63%-0.19