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Havana Prince

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 73

Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D from similar mark in March and fared better than of late when respectable third of 12 to Beattie Is Back in a handicap here 23 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 76 · 7f50y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 76 par20/094OR 764 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 74 · 7f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 7f6y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 75 par18/104OR 754 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 74 par27/034OR 744 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 22 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 76 par23/054OR 764 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f195y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 74 · 7f15y Std 139 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 74 par2/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle53rd3rd0
2026-08-19Carlisle48th7th+1
2026-05-23York414th13th+1
2026-05-15York416th15th+1
2026-03-27Newcastle41st0th+1
2026-03-12Newcastle43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0912/0323/052/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202512th18/15%0%-0.05
10/10/20255th16/116%80%+0.64
18/10/20256th4/179%44%-0.35
12/03/20263rd40/10%78%+0.78
27/03/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
15/05/202616th11/142%29%-0.14
23/05/202614th22/10%38%+0.38
19/08/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
02/09/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16