11
Lessay
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61
Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |