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Lord Capulet

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75

Newcastle · Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time C&D winner who was second here in May but ran below form on turf last 2 starts. Return to this venue makes him of some interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 64 par19/026OR 645 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 133 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 68 par27/035OR 685 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 68 · 7f15y Std 128 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 70 par7/055OR 705 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 77 · 7f1y GS 153 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 77 par12/064OR 774 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 7f6y GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 76 · 6f195y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 76 par19/084OR 76projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Carlisle410th9th+1
2026-07-09Doncaster46th5th+1
2026-06-12Chester43rd2nd+1
2026-05-19Newcastle52nd2nd0
2026-05-07Redcar51st1st0
2026-04-20Newcastle51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0220/0412/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength12%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
28/02/20263rd15/890%67%-0.23
27/03/202610th2/189%10%-0.79
20/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
07/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
19/05/20262nd13/891%89%-0.03
12/06/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
09/07/20266th20/10%44%+0.44
19/08/202610th14/126%0%-0.26