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13

Breeze Star

3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 45

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made more impact than previously on second start for current yard when fourth of 16 in handicap at Redcar (6f, good, 50/1) 16 days ago, slowly away. Remains to be seen if able to back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Musselburgh 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0824 @ Musselburgh 13/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 53 · 6f Std 123 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 53 par4/106OR 536 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 47 · 6f6y Gd 117 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 47 par3/056OR 476 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 45 · 5f182y Sft 126 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 5f Sta 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 45 par25/076OR 456 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 45 · 5f1y Goo 124 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 45 · 5f217y Goo 125 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 45 par9/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar64th4th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh69th9th0
2026-07-25Newcastle68th8th0
2026-06-08Carlisle67th7th0
2026-05-03Hamilton68th8th0
2025-10-17Redcar68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0817/1025/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20255th66/10%20%+0.20
13/09/20258th300/10%22%+0.22
04/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
17/10/20258th14/126%0%-0.26
03/05/20268th50/10%0%0.00
08/06/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20268th50/10%22%+0.22
24/08/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
09/09/20264th50/10%80%+0.80