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12

Desert Master

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Isn't proving easy to win with but again wasn't disgraced when sixth of 8 in handicap over this C&D 22 days ago. Should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 45 · 4f214y Std 122 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 45 par15/046OR 456 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f Goo 122 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 46 · 6f2y GF 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 46 par6/066OR 466 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f110y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 46 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 46 par1/076OR 466 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 45 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 45 par31/076OR 456 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par3/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle66th6th0
2026-08-20Newcastle65th5th0
2026-07-31Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-17Nottingham64th4th0
2026-07-01Thirsk67th7th0
2026-06-15Wetherby64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0415/0631/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -10.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
27/05/20266th20/10%38%+0.38
06/06/20262nd50/10%93%+0.93
15/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
01/07/20267th11/142%65%+0.23
17/07/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
31/07/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
20/08/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
03/09/20266th4/179%29%-0.50