7
Lord Abama
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.00 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |