6
Mrbluesky
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Pontefract | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 23/07/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 03/09/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |