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3

Reenie's Dream

4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 51

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unreliable type who did herself no favours at the start on just second try at a sprint trip when fourth of 7 in handicap over this C&D (6/1) 22 days ago, very slowly away. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Carlisle 12/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 6f195y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/08/2025 · OR 60 par12/086OR 606 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 60 · 6f Std 135 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 60 par9/106OR 606 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 56 par24/026OR 566 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 56 · 7f15y Std 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 56 par28/046OR 566 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 6f195y Goo 133 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 53 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 53 par3/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle64th4th0
2026-08-19Carlisle68th8th0
2026-04-28Southwell68th8th0
2026-03-28Southwell64th4th0
2026-02-24Newcastle69th9th0
2026-02-05Southwell69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/085/0228/043/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
26/09/20255th11/486%50%-0.36
09/10/202510th11/271%0%-0.71
05/02/20269th33/10%27%+0.27
24/02/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
28/03/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
28/04/20268th13/266%36%-0.29
19/08/20268th5/287%22%-0.65
03/09/20264th6/168%50%-0.18