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8

Ridgemaster

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who again found only one too good in 16-runner handicap at Redcar (6f, good) 16 days ago. Can remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 10/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 53 · 7f14y Std 123 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 53 par10/016OR 536 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m6y Std 132 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 51 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 51 par16/056OR 516 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 48 · 7f50y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 48 par20/066OR 486 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 48 · 6f Sta 128 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 48 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par31/076OR 486 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 49 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 50 · 5f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 50 par9/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar62nd2nd0
2026-08-26Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-07-31Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-06-26Newcastle67th7th0
2026-06-20Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-05-28Ripon63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0128/0531/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20268th28/10%30%+0.30
20/04/202611th20/10%23%+0.23
16/05/20267th50/10%63%+0.63
28/05/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
20/06/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
26/06/20267th5/174%50%-0.24
31/07/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
26/08/20262nd17/255%92%+0.36
09/09/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14