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9yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seventeen runs since last win in 2024 but ran one of this season's better races when fifth of 13 in handicap at this course (7f) 22 days ago, albeit well positioned.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 24/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark24/01/2025 · OR 62 par24/016OR 626 @ Southwell 12/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark12/02/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 7f14y Std 131 · below its mark12/03/2025 · OR 60 par12/036OR 606 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 52 par11/046OR 526 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 50 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 51 par21/056OR 516 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 51 par3/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle65th5th0
2026-08-27Southwell66th6th0
2026-05-21Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-05-07Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-04-11Southwell69th9th0
2026-03-11Newcastle65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0111/0321/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/20254th9/153%57%+0.05
12/02/20253rd11/142%78%+0.36
12/03/20255th9/153%20%-0.33
11/03/20265th50/10%33%+0.33
11/04/20269th18/15%20%+0.15
07/05/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35
21/05/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
27/08/20266th22/10%44%+0.44
03/09/20265th8/158%67%+0.09