10
Uncle Sam
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Sprint Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Newcastle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 58% | -0.18 |
| 06/11/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 46% | -0.28 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 09/12/2025 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 23% | -0.53 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.28 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |